Canada’s ransomware forecast is not “scary” anymore – it’s operational. On January 28, 2026, the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security released its Ransomware Threat Outlook 2025-2027. The key message is simple: ransomware keeps getting cheaper, faster, and more adaptable, and every organization in Canada is in scope.
Here’s the uncomfortable part most businesses gloss over: the Cyber Centre explicitly recognizes that ransomware is no longer just “files encrypted.” It includes data theft and extortion even when encryption never happens. In other words, the attacker can skip the flashy lock screen and still ruin your week.
At 010grp, we’re going to say the quiet part out loud: if your ransomware plan is “we’ll restore from backups,” you don’t have a plan. You have hope, and hope does not pass audits, satisfy insurers, or calm customers when their data might be on a leak site.
What’s actually changing in ransomware (and why Canada should care)
The Threat Outlook points to a modern ecosystem that’s constantly evolving. For Canadian SMBs, three shifts matter the most:
1) Multi-extortion is becoming the norm
Ransomware groups are increasingly stacking pressure: encryption + data theft + threats to contact customers + even service disruption. Translation: paying once does not guarantee peace. You need a plan that assumes attackers will try to squeeze you from multiple angles.
2) “Exfiltration-only” attacks are rising
Some actors are skipping encryption and going straight to stealing data and extorting you with the threat of exposure. This is why “our backups are good” is not the finish line. You also need visibility into what data was accessed, and you need a clean, defensible response process.
3) AI is making entry cheaper
AI doesn’t have to “hack” you. It just has to scale the parts criminals already do well: phishing, impersonation, and social engineering. That means basic controls and good process – done consistently – will beat “fancy tools” implemented badly.
If you want the Canadian government’s own summary of the report release and why it matters, read the official news release here.
The biggest myth to retire: “We’re too small to be a target”
The Cyber Centre calls this one out directly in its myths section: small organizations can absolutely be hit, especially when they depend on third parties and managed services. Attackers don’t need your brand. They need your money, your invoices, your payroll access, your customer list, or your ability to panic-pay.
And here’s what we see across Canada: most ransomware victims don’t fail at “security.” They fail at speed. They detect late, they contain slowly, and their recovery is untested.
If you need the mindset reset, start with our internal piece Your Backups Alone Won’t Save You From Ransomware, then come back here.
The ransomware protection playbook that actually works for Canadian businesses
Ransomware resilience is not one product. It’s a system. We build that system at 010grp by combining identity hardening, backup resilience, network controls, and 24/7 detection into an operating rhythm that leadership can actually run.
Here’s the blueprint – practical, high-impact, and aligned with guidance like the Cyber Centre’s Baseline Cyber Security Controls for Small and Medium Organizations.
Layer 1: Make identity a fortress (because attackers log in)
- Enforce strong MFA everywhere – especially for email, remote access, admin portals, and backups. If you want help rolling this out cleanly, see our multi-factor authentication (MFA) services.
- Move high-risk accounts to phishing-resistant sign-in. CISA’s short guidance on phishing-resistant MFA explains why “some MFA” is still phishable.
- Kill standing admin rights. Use privileged access management (PAM) so admins elevate only when needed, with logs you can trust.
Want a practical rollout path that won’t detonate your helpdesk? Use Stop Using Passwords: Your 30-Day Passkey Plan as your playbook.
Layer 2: Shrink the blast radius with segmentation
Flat networks turn one compromised laptop into a company-wide event. Segmentation limits lateral movement and buys you time.
- Separate user networks from servers.
- Isolate backup infrastructure and management tools.
- Fence off IoT, printers, cameras, and OT where possible.
This is where our network security and segmentation work delivers immediate value: fewer pathways, fewer catastrophic outcomes.
Layer 3: Build backups ransomware can’t delete
Attackers know you’ll try to restore. So they go after backups early.
- Design for immutability or offline copies.
- Protect backup consoles with separate credentials and MFA, ideally isolated from day-to-day admin accounts.
- Test restores on a schedule. A backup you’ve never restored is not a backup – it’s a comforting story.
If you want this engineered properly, our backup and disaster recovery (BDR) solutions focus on recoverability, not checkbox storage.
For Canadian ransomware fundamentals straight from the source, the Cyber Centre’s ransomware guidance is worth bookmarking.
Layer 4: Stop the “one click” entry path
Most ransomware stories begin with a boring moment: a link, a QR code, a fake invoice, a compromised vendor email thread. Controls that block outbound connection to malicious infrastructure can prevent incidents before they become incidents.
Start with our internal guide Your Firewall Won’t Stop This Click, then add:
- URL filtering and DNS-layer protection
- Email filtering to cut down impersonation and payload delivery (we support this through email filtering services)
- Security awareness training that actually changes behaviour, not just compliance stats – see security awareness training
Layer 5: 24/7 detection and response – because ransomware is a race
Ransomware doesn’t politely wait for business hours. And attackers love after-hours escalation because fewer humans are watching.
Canada’s Cyber Centre has even run a pre-ransomware notification initiative, warning hundreds of organizations before major damage (see the Government of Canada’s release here). The lesson: signals exist – but only if you collect and act on them.
This is exactly why we built 010grp’s approach around 24/7 monitoring, threat detection, and containment-ready runbooks. If you want the operational argument, read Canadian SMBs: You’re Flying Blind Without 24/7 Cyber Monitoring.
If you’re already investing in logging and SIEM, don’t waste it. Our article Your MFA Isn’t Enough: The 7 SIEM Moves Canadian SMBs Must Make Now shows what “useful” visibility looks like.
Layer 6: Incident response that works under pressure
When ransomware hits, the first 72 hours decide the outcome. If your response is chaotic, you’ll pay twice: once in downtime, and again in bad decisions.
Use our Canadian-focused guide Breached? Do This in 72 Hours or Pay Twice to build a plan that leadership can execute without turning your company into a group-chat command centre.
Also, don’t treat insurance as armour. It’s a financial instrument with conditions. If you haven’t read The Cyber Insurance Lie, you should.
Canada-specific reality: ransomware can trigger privacy obligations
If data is accessed or stolen, you may have reporting, notification, and record-keeping duties – even if you restore systems quickly.
- The Office of the Privacy Commissioner of Canada explains PIPEDA breach reporting expectations and the “real risk of significant harm” test here.
- Québec’s privacy regulator summarizes “confidentiality incident” obligations for private enterprises here.
If you experience ransomware, Canada’s guidance also encourages reporting to the Cyber Centre (via My Cyber Portal) and to law enforcement and fraud reporting channels like the Report Cybercrime and Fraud system.
Do this next – the ransomware readiness sprint
If you’re a Canadian owner or executive and you want a practical starting point, here’s the sprint we recommend:
- Week 1: lock identity for executives, finance, and admins (MFA, phishing-resistant where possible, reduce admin accounts).
- Week 2: isolate backups, enable immutability or offline copies, and run an actual restore test.
- Week 3: segment the network and restrict lateral movement pathways.
- Week 4: run a tabletop exercise with leadership and create a one-page incident call tree.
If you want help implementing this without buying random tools and hoping for the best, start with 010grp’s cyber protection services or reach out through contact us. The goal isn’t to look secure. It’s to recover cleanly when ransomware tries to turn your business into a headline.
